Election Forecast: Kamala Harris Leads Donald Trump in Simulation Model

A recent simulation model suggests that Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, holds a slight edge over Republican opponent Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. According to a U.S.-based website, Harris emerged victorious in 50.015% of the 80,000 simulated election scenarios conducted.

In the simulations, Trump won 39,718 times, while Harris triumphed in 40,012 cases. The simulations also resulted in 270 scenarios where the Electoral College was tied 269-269, which may ultimately favor Trump in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Kamala Harris shares a laugh at a campaign rally in Philadelphia as the Democratic presidential nominee.

The simulation results indicate a narrow margin, with Harris projected to receive 48.6% of the popular vote compared to Trump’s 47.6%. Harris is leading in key states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Minnesota, while Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Iowa.

Harris secured the Democratic nomination following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race amid concerns about his age. If elected, the 59-year-old would make history as the first woman to assume the presidency.

Trump, seeking a second term, is running as the Republican candidate for the third consecutive election cycle.

In international reactions, India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar expressed confidence that the U.S.-India relationship would strengthen regardless of the election outcome. “We have seen steady progress in our relationship with the U.S. over the last five presidencies, including during Trump’s earlier presidency. So, we are confident that whatever the verdict, our relationship with the U.S. will only grow,” he stated.